… Nigeria is left with three choices of the Valvet Revolution, the Berlin Wall or the Yugoslav Fragmentation

The International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) is reacting to recent Nigeria’s Abuja (Federal Capital City) terror warning by the Government of the United States through its Embassy in Nigeria by observing that the present Government of Nigeria is making peaceful change impossible and violent change inevitable and riotously clearing road for emergence of Biafra Republic and others.

It is our further observation that the rising jihadist terror threats ahead of Nigeria’s crucial Presidential Poll and others are not accidental as the present Nigerian Government had since its inception in 2015 behaved through its policies and actions as if its cardinal governance mission is to promote State Jihadism. The indices on the ground have also practically shown that apart from increase in the number of Islamic Jihadist groups and regionalization and internationalization of same using Nigerian landscapes or spaces, the Islamic Jihadists also made far much inroad or encroachment into Nigeria’s state power, territories and regions than in the previous years before mid 2015.

There are no fewer than 15 Islamic jihadist groups presently operating or assembling in the country. There are also scores of embryonic others littered across the country. As at May 2015, Nigeria had only three well known Islamic Jihadist groups: Boko Haram, Ansaru and ISWAP. Locally and regionally assembled Jihadist Fulani Herdsmen became full blown and widespread Islamic Jihadist terror group after their state actor radicalization and romance with the present Government of Nigeria which started in late 2015. By 2016, they started moving southward and middle belt ward in widespread under Government security establishments’ watch and protection, using the existing centuries’ old cattle grazing routes.

As if the above was not enough, the Nigerian Government and its security establishments dangerously embarked on sundry jihadist animal husbandry plans camouflaged in different names including “Military Ranching”, “RUGA”, “National Livestock Transformation Plan”, “Waterway Control Plan”, etc. The pluralistic and secularism doctrine of the country’s security forces was also dealt a heavy blow under the present Government of Nigeria which also introduced ethnic and religious domination in their command and rank and file structures leading to rabid operational crudity and partisanship or segregated and discriminatory policing and soldiering.

The Government of Nigeria is also wholly responsible for riotous militarization of the Old Eastern Nigeria and self reactive emergence of different non state actor armed fighting parties including sophisticated armed street criminal entities and politically armed groups including subversive armed elements secretly funded by Government and its security agencies to imitate or counterfeit the violent version of the activities of the like of the Eastern Security Network or ESN. The present Government of Nigeria cannot extricate itself from being remotely responsible for violent and conquest occupation of no fewer than 400 (a 2020 Retired DIG says 336) locations in the Southeast alone by Islamic Terror Fulani Herdsmen and their foreign recruits armed with AK-47s, etc.

The number of defenseless citizens and civilian properties wantonly destroyed in Old Eastern Nigeria by Nigerian security forces since August 2015 has never been recorded since the Nigeria-Biafra Civil War of 1967-70. The massive military crackdowns and other locally and internationally prohibited acts by Nigerian Government in Old Eastern Nigeria against quiet and street protesting members of the Eastern civil population are totally responsible for resort to radical self helps including taking up arms by the aggrieved segment of the old Region’s population.

Politically, the same Government of Nigeria and political extremists within its folds are stopping at nothing both openly and clandestinely to force majority of Nigerians out of participating and voting in the 2023 General Polls especially the Presidential Election fixed for 25th Feb 2023 and robotically install a conman and Jihad enabler as next president. Through the Government controlled INEC, no fewer than 77.4m citizens of independent voting age have been massively disenfranchised from participating and voting in the referenced 2023 Polls.

This is more so when the National Register of Voters is strongly alleged or believed to be littered with estimated 20m ghost names, minors and migrants. Also out of the so called “93.5m registered voters”, only 44m are independently estimated to possess Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) as it stands today.

Nigerian Government Is Riotously Championing Biafra Independence More Than Agitators Do

It must be clearly noted that the present Government of Nigeria is a riotous proponent of Biafra Independence in Nigeria or any part thereof. This, the Nigerian Government has been doing since late 2015 through its divisive and annihilative policies and actions above highlighted. In our independent rating, the Nigerian Government is found to be practically and riotously championing the Biafra Independence above the Biafra Agitators by 70%-30% margin or ratio.

The Nigerian Government had since late 2015 deployed and applied segregating, exclusionist and annihilative policies of “structural violence, physical violence and cultural violence” against the Old Eastern Nigerian population and their territories, properties and collective dignity and ethnic identities. Through ‘structural violence’, the Old Eastern Region and its population have been politically excluded from the mainstream scheme of things including denial of proportionate political office, military office, policing office, diplomatic office and bureaucratic office appointments and proportionate allocation of resources and other discriminatory economic policies. Through ‘physical violence’, the defenseless population of the Region have been targeted and unleashed with “industrial scale” physical violent attacks leading to wanton destruction of several thousands of defenseless lives and properties; and through ‘cultural violence’, they have been denied and deprived of their rights to ethnic identity, existence and development as well as their rights to freedom of worship, conscience and thought.

Three Options Before Nigeria Ahead Of 2023

Nigeria and Nigerians under the riotous political midwifery of the present central Government are left with three options ahead of 2023. One: should the Nigerian Government and its friendly Islamic Jihadists decide to scuttle the country’s democracy and its crucial 2023 Presidential Poll by riotously and violently matching and taking over Abuja and the country’s Seat of Power (Aso Rock), then that will be violent bye-bye to the territory of Ms Dame Flora Louise Shaw called “Nigeria” and welcome to fragmentation and birth of ‘Republic of Biafra’ and embryonic others.

This option can be likened to the aftermath of the violent Yugoslav Revolution of 1991-2001 and turbulent emergence of ‘Republics of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and North Macedonia. Two: should the Nigerian Government toe the path of wisdom by directing INEC to panel-beat gross damages the Commission has inflicted on 2023 Presidential Poll process by flushing out estimated 20m fake identities, minors or underage and illegal migrants from the National Register of Voters and mandatorily issue PVCs to 29.5m registered voters presently without PVCs and provide enabling environment for them to vote conscientiously in the 2023 Presidential Poll; then Nigeria will be ushered into a new democratic socio-legal era and better positioned to discuss and agree on better national identity and cohabitation formula for the country and this can be linked to the Valvet Revolution of 1989 in former Czechoslovakia leading to peaceful emergence of Republics of Czechs and Slovakia. Three: should the present Government of Nigeria toe same path as referenced above under “Option Two”, then there may most likely be replication of the Berlin Wall Option of 1989 or peaceful and cohesive unification of East and West Germans; capable of allowing Nigeria to come up with better co-existential and national cohesive strategies agreed upon by the country’s existing ethnic and religious groupings or nationalities through electoral college representation or representatives.

For: International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law, Onitsha, Eastern Nigeria

Principal Officers:

Emeka Umeagbalasi, Criminologist/Researcher, Board Chair

Chinwe Umeche Esquire, Head, Democracy and Good Governance Program @Intersociety

Obianuju Joy Igboeli Esquire, Head, Civil Liberties and Rule of Law Program @ Intersociety

Chidinma Udegbunam Esquire, Head, Campaign and Publicity Department @ Intersociety

Contacts: Mobile Phone: +2348174090052, Email: info@intersociety-org.ng

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