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In times of crisis, nations rise or fall on the decisions of their leaders. Nigeria today stands on the brink—not because her people are unwilling to work, but because those tasked with activating her economic levers seem out of sync with the urgency of now. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, has not only failed to stimulate growth, it has become a brake pad on the wheel of national productivity. Monetary policy is now a burden rather than a buffer. And it is time we told ourselves the hard truth: this economy is not working, and its current stewards are part of the problem.

Though the President has extended the stay of Mr Bashir Adewale Adeniyi the Controller General of the Customs till August 2026, we will see through the court process already initiated. Judiciary interpretation of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s action is of essence to constitutional Democracy. At the receiving end of this particular decision is Nigeria’s economy. While the bulk stops at the President’s table, the Central role of those packaging the bulk; the CBN and the Ministry of Finance are of concern. Without ignoring the healthiness of field Agencies like the Customs Service that should bring in the sheaves of revenue. How well the Customs are doing or not will be expanciated in follow up articles. For now let’s concern ourselves with the CBN and the Ministry of Finance.

The Cardinal Failure of Cardoso

Cardoso’s CBN has continued the pattern of elite detachment from the economic realities of Nigerians. His latest policy decision—to increase intervention lending rates for development finance institutions such as the Bank of Industry (BOI) from 9% to 15%—betrays a textbook economic error. At a time when industrial productivity is at its weakest in over a decade and over 40% of Nigeria’s MSMEs have shut down due to high costs of capital, you do not increase the cost of doing business. You ease it.

The impact is clear: industrial loans have slowed, job losses are rising, and entrepreneurial dreams are suffocating under interest rate pressure. Even worse, the BOI, once the engine of inclusive growth, now finds itself hamstrung by a monetary policy arm whose vision is distorted by a misguided preference for Brazil’s economic model—a model whose application in Nigeria is as dangerous as it is unfit.

Cardoso is reportedly enamoured with Brazil’s inflation-targeting regime and tight monetary controls. But he forgets that Brazil, with over $300 billion in reserves, and a more robust institutional accountability framework, is not grappling with the kind of currency volatility and fiscal indiscipline that Nigeria is. You cannot prescribe Brazil’s aspirin to Nigeria’s cancer.

Let the Nerve Centres Remain National

Governor Cardoso’s worldview might be global, but economic command centres must remain nationally sensitive. In entrusting Nigeria’s monetary levers to ideas not rooted in the nation’s context, we risk surrendering our economic sovereignty to foreign models. When national nerves—like monetary policy, trade management, and development banking—fall into the hands of people whose first loyalty is to foreign frameworks, the economy becomes an experiment—not a living, breathing ecosystem of millions of livelihoods.

Sustainability, not global mimicry, is the essence of sound economic management. Which brings us to a question few ask but every patriotic economist must: What is the model that sustains the world’s oldest companies, and why has Japan managed to keep 53% of them? The answer is simple: trust, long-term thinking, family-rooted enterprise systems, and scaling—not just survival.

From Survival to Scaling: Leadership That Multiplies

Scaling leadership isn’t just a catchphrase; it is the currency of modern governance. Nigeria doesn’t need leaders who help the nation survive until the next election—we need economic multipliers. Japan has shown that scaling starts from culture, trust in institutions, and continuity in economic values. Compare that to America, where only 1% of the world’s oldest companies survive—because shareholder capitalism prioritizes short-term survival over sustainability.

In Africa, Rwanda and Morocco offer us lessons in scaling economies—trust-based taxation, targeted sector support, and strong institutional accountability. Singapore, under Lee Kuan Yew, scaled trust into GDP. China scaled poverty reduction into power. But Nigeria, under Cardoso’s CBN, is scaling confusion, not clarity.

EFCC: Barking or Biting?

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), an economic watchdog, must ask itself: is it biting or merely barking? The recent indictment of the Comptroller-General of Customs and the Minister of Finance at the joint National Assembly Committee on Finance—raised by Senator Ade Fadahunsi—should not disappear from public discourse. Corruption at the apex of finance and trade can tank investor confidence faster than currency devaluation. If these allegations are not transparently investigated and prosecuted, the EFCC might as well change its name to “Economic Fiction and Cosmetic Commission.”

The Economy of Votes: Mr President, Take Note

Mr. President must now govern with a new awareness: the economy of votes. This isn’t a phrase for pundits; it’s a governing principle. Between now and 2027, Nigerians will not judge performance based on grand speeches or digital campaigns. They will judge it by the cost of food, the value of the naira, and the feeling in their stomachs.

The fuel of reelection is not rhetoric—it is “stomach infrastructure,” economic delivery, and policy clarity. Performance, not propaganda, will determine 2027. While opposition figures like Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, or Omoyele Sowore may ride on the wave of anti-establishment sentiments, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s best and only winning strategy is economic results.

That is why a cabinet reshuffle by October 1st is not only desirable—it is imperative. There is no economic miracle without the right drivers. If a governor or minister cannot shift the economic tide in the next 18 months, they must give way.

The IGP Elongation Debacle and the Cost of Sentiment

One particularly disturbing misstep is the planned elongation of the tenure of the current Inspector General of Police. At a time when insecurity is costing us 2% of GDP annually, and investor confidence is at its lowest, extending the tenure of a security chief who has failed to dramatically alter the security architecture sends the wrong signal. Democrats throughout history have placed sensitive portfolios in the hands of loyal and capable kinsmen—not for ethnic reasons, but to align national priorities with trusted vision.

Obasanjo changed IGP repeatedly and all were his kinsmen. Is Egbetokun President Tinubu’s last kinsman in the police service? Why then should Tinubu change laws to favour an underperforming security chief, instead of simply changing the individual?

October 1st: The President’s Decision Hour

October 1st is symbolic—not just for Nigeria’s independence, but for presidential leadership. It is a day to chart a new path. Nigerians are tired. Investors are nervous. And the poor are hungry. If Mr. President fails to act, he risks walking blindly into the same electoral defeat that caught Goodluck Jonathan in 2015—delivered by the same economy of votes.

The choices are stark:

Reshuffle or Retrench?

Reform or Regret?

Scale or Stumble?

It is time to bring on credible, proven hands—economists, technocrats, and nation-builders who understand the pulse of the people and the metrics of the market.

Let the EFCC bite harder. Let the CBN be reviewed. Let development banks like BOI return to their mission. Let cabinet portfolios reflect capability over cronyism. And let Cardoso know: Nigeria is not Brazil.

The President has one job now—tilt the economy toward the economy of votes.

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